Lilian Glaza | 2025 I.S Symposium
Name: Lilian Glaza
Title: Identifying Key Factors in Predicting Plasmodium Falciparum Malaria Transmission in Maharashtra: A Data-Driven Mathematical Model
Major: Mathematics
Minor: Economics
Advisors: Qimin Huang
Malaria continues to be a significant health problem across India, with Plasmodium falciparum being the deadliest species of parasites that carry the disease. This research develops a data-driven mathematical model to predict malaria transmission dynamics in Maharashtra, focusing on three districts with varying transmission levels: Nashik, Brihan Mumbai, and Gadchiroli. A modified SIR-SI model, which incorporates both human and mosquito populations, was used to analyze the spread of Plasmodium falciparum malaria. Using real-world data from the Open Government Data Platform India, differential equations, and parameter estimation, the models were optimized for best fit. Key factors such as seasonality, immunity loss, control measures, and mosquito breeding dynamics were integrated to increase the models’ accuracy. Results indicate regional differences in transmission rates, influenced by climate, population density, healthcare access, and vector control strategies. Sensitivity analysis highlights the role of human-to-mosquito transmission rates and control interventions in reducing Plasmodium falciparum malaria prevalence. These findings provide insights into targeted policy recommendations for malaria prevention and control in Maharashtra, with broader implications for other endemic regions.
My grandfather was born in India, which sparked my interest in studying malaria in the region. I’m also passionate about health and medicine, and plan to pursue a career in that field after graduation. One of the key takeaways from this research is the effectiveness of preventative measures. Allocating more resources to highly affected areas, especially before the peak monsoon season, is crucial. In particular, the RTS,S/AS01 vaccine plays a vital role in preventing Plasmodium falciparum malaria.
Posted in Symposium 2025 on May 1, 2025.
