Tyrell Cooper | 2025 I.S. Symposium

Name: Tyrell Cooper
Title: Calculating the Relationship Between Extreme Weather Conditions and Climate Modes Across the North Atlantic Ocean
Major: Environmental Geoscience
Pathway: Environmental Communication & Action
Advisor: Meagen Pollock

Human caused climate change affects all sectors of the planet’s bio-geo-chemical systems and the disruptions to these global systems, especially concerning the atmosphere and hydrosphere, become more apparent with each passing year.
The relationship between ocean circulation and atmospheric processes requires intense examination now that major circulatory systems are being affected by human caused climate change. This research examines the intensification and shifting frequencies of extreme weather conditions across the North Atlantic Ocean. Interestingly, the AMOC weakening solely produces the emergence of the North Atlantic Warming Hole (NAWH) which characterizes the anomalous surface water cooling. My examination is achieved by identifying distinct pressure patterns using the SOM algorithm, defining CTP appropriate extreme weather conditions, and correlating the occurrence of pressure pattern dependent climate extremes to a climate mode, North Atlantic Ocean (NAO), to contextualize the proposed systemic behavioral trends. Weak positive correlations were found between the NAO and extreme cold and precipitation conditions. The NAO was recorded to be in its positive phase when there is higher probability of extreme conditions describing regional air temperatures to be below the 10th percentile for at least five days and precipitation is above the 90th percentile for at least five days. Extremely high air temperature conditions are not correlated strongly with the NAO index and there is no increased probability for any one specific heat related index to occur. This work provides insight into future climate risks under continued AMOC weakening. We must understand how our atmosphere and oceans respond uniquely to climate change and more importantly, but more confusingly, understand how these two affect each other.

Posted in Symposium 2025 on May 1, 2025.