On The Long-Term Future Importance of Investments in Economic Growth and Global Catastrophic Risk Reduction

Student: Pedro Adami Oliboni
Majors: Mathematics, Philosophy
Minor: Economics
Advisors: John Ramsay, Garrett Thomson

Melissa Schultz I.S. Research Prize
in Sustainability and the Environment
3rd Place

This is a study about the optimal allocation of resources between investments in economic growth and global catastrophic risk reduction. I discuss different ways of conceiving of the value of economic growth. I outline some important concepts for understanding global catastrophic risks and the challenges in modelling such risks. I categorize and clarify philosophical presuppositions that are important to the project. I present a novel argument for why improving the far future may be our moral priority. I discuss at length the Ramsey approach to optimal allocation of resources. I provide an introduction to continuous Optimal Control Theory, a method for solving problems of dynamic maximization. I then use this method to develop my own model for the optimal investing in economic growth and global catastrophic risk reduction. This model illustrates how standard mathematical-economics methodology can be used to tackle my research objective while incorporating the philosophical positions discussed.