Finley Bodnar | 2025 I.S. Symposium

Name: Finley Bodnar
Title: The Needle and the Damage Done: How does Chinese state participation in illicit global economies affect domestic security
Majors: Political Science; Chinese Studies
Pathway: Comparative Politics
Advisors: Matthew Krain; Rujie Wang

The literature broadly asserts that illicit global markets—particularly drug markets—undermine state security and sovereignty. However, in China, where both central and provincial authorities incentivize domestic companies to manufacture fentanyl and other new psychoactive substances (NPS), there is little evidence that drug use or trafficking poses a significant threat to domestic state security. This thesis explores how Chinese state participation in illicit global markets affects domestic security. To investigate this, I identified three key state responses to illicit global markets found in existing literature and employed them as causal mechanisms within an outcome-based process tracing methodology. Two critical outcomes emerged: (1) chemical manufacturers in China are more likely to ship fentanyl abroad than to domestic buyers, and (2) there is a notable absence of fentanyl-related deaths or security disruptions within mainland China. These outcomes are best explained by China’s dual strategy of cooption and repression. On one hand, the state coopts fentanyl production by offering export incentives, such as VAT rebates, encouraging manufacturers to target foreign markets. On the other hand, it strictly represses domestic drug use, creating conditions that effectively force producers to export their goods rather than distribute them locally. Furthermore, by incentivizing the production of fentanyl and NPS, the Chinese government has fostered a parallel industry that supports national economic and security interests. Thus, I argue that China has managed to pacify the traditionally negative relationship between illicit drugs and state power by coopting the international market while repressing domestic consumption.

Posted in Symposium 2025 on May 1, 2025.